Essay On World Economy

Essay On World Economy-8
The causes of the current slowdown can be summed up as the Three Ds: depopulation, deleveraging, and deglobalization.Between the end of World War II and the financial crisis of 2008, the global economy was supercharged by explosive population growth, a debt boom that fueled investment and boosted productivity, and an astonishing increase in cross-border flows of goods, money, and people.

The causes of the current slowdown can be summed up as the Three Ds: depopulation, deleveraging, and deglobalization.Between the end of World War II and the financial crisis of 2008, the global economy was supercharged by explosive population growth, a debt boom that fueled investment and boosted productivity, and an astonishing increase in cross-border flows of goods, money, and people.The “third arrow” of Abenomics, which was supposed to implement significant structural reforms and boost productivity, has been slow to materialize.

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The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years.

One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end.

The global recovery from the Great Recession of 2009 has just entered its eighth year and shows few signs of fading. Rather than rejoicing, then, many experts are now anxiously searching for a way to push the world economy out of its low-growth trap.

Throughout this period, the global economy has grown at an average annual pace of just 2.5 percent—a record low when compared with economic rebounds that took place in the decades after World War II.

The slowdown in China’s economy and the fallout from trade tensions between the US and China are drags on growth.

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Monetary policy will continue to be ultra-accommodative next year.

As a result, we expect growth of 2.6% in 2019 - less than in 2018, but still above trend.

Eurozone growth peaked in the second half of 2017, and has declined steadily since then.

On an annual basis, the pace of expansion has slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, and will fall further to 6.3% in 2019.

In response to recent economic shocks - including the impact of US tariffs, which has so far been limited - policy-makers have unleashed a series of monetary and fiscal measures to help support growth and stabilize financial markets.

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